If flight cancellations, rerouting and delays are all that you expected to tackle due to the series of events that occured last week, you are mistaken.
Here’s the newest thing to worry about too- Airfares. Airfares from the Middle East to India have skyrocketed by 125% to over 900%! Yes you have heard that right. Due to the ongoing conflict and airspace closures, you can now expect to pay double or triple the amount of a usual ticket.
How Bad Is The Airfare Surge?
It’s bad. Considering the jump of 125 to 900%, you can expect the single ticket costs to seem unreasonable high.
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Economy tickets from Dubai or Muscat to Indian cities, are normally ₹11,000–₹18,000. Now you can be expected to pay anywhere from ₹70,000 to ₹1 lakh.
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Air India Express flights from Muscat to Mumbai saw a jaw-dropping 928% fare hike, jumping from ₹6,794 to almost ₹69,899.
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SpiceJet’s Fujairah-Mumbai flight saw another huge surge of 835%, that means, from ₹9,200 to ₹86,056.
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Long-haul flights, such as London to Mumbai, have seen economy fares rise to ₹2.9 lakh (from ₹20,000–₹40,000).
Why The Airfare Surge?
There are many reasons that trigger airfare to surge as such, but keeping the recent situations in view, these are the reasons behind the sudden jump in numbers.
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Mass flight cancellations: Over 1,600 flights by Indian carriers were cancelled, creating a supply-demand imbalance.
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Rerouting: Flights are taking longer than usual paths to avoid conflict zones. This in turn increases fuel and insurance costs.
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Operational costs: Yes this is a thing. War-risk insurance and a 6% rise in aviation fuel prices have added a whopping ₹20,000–₹35,000 per passenger.
How Does This Affect The Airlines?
It’s a lot! Indian airlines are incurring huge financial losses due to the West Asia airspace closures and the many cancellations and longer than usual journeys.
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IndiGo is facing an estimated daily revenue loss of ₹45–50 crore and a net profit loss of ₹4–5 crore.
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SpiceJet could lose ₹5–5.5 crore in daily revenue, with a net profit impact of ₹25–35 lakh per day.
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Air India may see over 40% of its capacity affected, leading to substantial revenue decline.
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Overall, Indian carriers are estimated to have incurred a direct revenue loss of around ₹500 crore from cancellations as of March 3, 2026.
The air travel industry is just recovering from their losses during the pandemic, but geopolitics is turning out to be a pandemic of it’s own. With wars and conflicts breaking out rapidly, it’s hard to say if the air industry will ever be able to come to a secure position like before.
What Does This Mean For The Future?
This mean long-term impacts on the Indian Airlines especially. With it’s overreliance on the Gulf corridors, it’s it difficult to make a financial comeback.
- FY26 Earnings Impact: Already under pressure from the recent rupee depreciating even more, the prolonged conflict will negatively affect the fiscal earnings of year 2025–26. Not to mention, supply chain issues and aircraft delivery delays.
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Fuel Cost Surge: The big reason for the airfare surge, Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF), which makes up 35–40% of operating costs, is rising due to crude oil prices increasing from $65 to over $72 per barrel. A sustained $10–$15 rise in Brent crude could lead to double-digit percentage increases in ATF, squeezing margins furthermore.
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Limited Fare Pass-Through: While international fares are on the rise, the intense domestic competition makes full cost recovery unlikely.
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Cargo Revenue Loss: Due to flight cancellations, affecting high-value, time-sensitive exports like pharmaceuticals and electronics, belly cargo capacity has shrunk immensely.
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Insurance and Rerouting Costs: War-risk insurance premiums are on the rise, and due to the longer flight paths, fuel burn, crew costs has increased and cargo payload has reduced.
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Structural Vulnerability Exposed: This is a sad reality. Indian carriers’ heavy reliance on Gulf transit corridors, nearly 50% of India’s international passenger traffic, highlights strategic exposure to regional instability.
When Can I Book My Ticket?
Ticket surges will be on till the situations cools down, which seems will take time. For now this is your best bet.
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Monitor airline updates daily for route resumptions and to be up-to-date.
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Wait until after March 10, don’t make any decisions in a hurry and when current suspension periods end and more flights are expected to normalize, airfare will hopefully normalize too.
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Book closer to travel date but only after confirming flight status. Waiting is the best strategy for now as dynamic pricing may drop once more capacity is added.
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Passengers with tickets booked before February 28 for travel up to March 10 can rebook free or get a refund if needed. So check out more details on the respective websites or contact customer care.
At Coverpage Media we are determined to get to you the right information to keep you updated with the current affairs in the travel world.
